Feedback Letter
My main issues with your information are the following:
(1) The creation of a distinction between evolution and abiogenesis. Of course, I do not dispute that such a distinction exists; however, you cannot refute that evolution is touted by most people (and even many scientists) as a theory that "explains the origin of life." News reports often do not make the distinction. Since many people tend to assume that evolutionary biology is an atheist theory (just today I read a comment in the NY Times from a renowned scientist saying that evolution and theism are incompatible from a logical standpoint), I think this subject needs to be addressed more directly here. Are all of these scientists who tout evolution as an argument for atheism wrong? If so, this should be explicitly acknowledged.
(2) The page on "Chance and Evolution" is absolutely ridiculous. The article describing how we have to view chance in an evolutionary theory is important, but the article talking about God directing random events is silly. Yes, it could be true, but, once again, this goes against the grain of what the majority of the scientific community would say publicly. That needs to be acknowledged. I realize that the purpose of this forum is not to show what most scientists believe--but when you make statements that are in direct disagreement with what many scientists say publicly about evolution, this needs to be acknowledged.
(3) Any and all arguments addressing Michael Behe's book are misguided. Almost all criticisms I have read miss the point. Behe was trying to point out that the development of complex mechanisms are not well-understood. Yes, there are theories explaining how irreducibly complex systems CAN form according to evolution, but are these explanations PROBABLE? Can we actually apply these theories to the examples Behe gives and give moderately detailed proposed mechanisms that could possibly explain the systems? Are these mechanisms probable? Behe is not a moron. He understands that irreducible complexity can be explained by the theory of two components developing further from an initial one component system until they become dependent. What he wants, though, is someone to actually show how this theory works for real-world systems, and if anyone can point me to places where people have done a probabilistic analysis on a proposed mechanism that does this for a real fairly complex system that shows this can happen, I'd really be thrilled if you could point me to it.
(4) The previous argument goes for a lot of evolutionary theory with respect to probability. Are these explanations probable? Has anyone actually sat down and wrote a journal article saying, "OK, here are the assumptions, here are the estimates of how probable these events are, and now we apply them to the situation"?? The only detailed analysis of this kind I have seen in the pop literature (I admit I have not done extensive research in the academic journals for this) is in Spetner's "Not By Chance." His (obviously biased) conclusion is that even under optimal conditions, the chances of the horse sequence actually evolving the way it is postulated are very near zero. I know that you could probably refute his argument, but what I want is not a refutation, but a positive proof. I want to see a journal article that describes an evolutionary mechanism and does a probablistic analysis to determine whether it is possible. I want to SEE THE NUMBERS. I hate to make this statement, but I've seen everything from very decent webpages by bio post-docs to books by Richard Dawkins which give examples of how evolution is possible by saying, "Think of it this way--you think event X is improbable. However, take this over a very long time and a large population, and introduce favorable selection processes. Then won't you see that it can happen over time span Y in population Z?" Inevitably, almost every one of these "thought experiments" ends up being off by many orders of magnitude. The answer is almost always "No, it still can't happen according to your criteria." Why? Because Richard Dawkins, the savior of evolutionary biology, doesn't bother to plug in the numbers. I WANT TO SEE THE NUMBERS. Show me a journal article that shows me a real world case of evolution is probable. Because, I'll be honest, after reading these mathematical errors in Dawkins and many other sources, I've now stopped believing in evolution. I was not swayed by the Creationists, but rather by the stupidity of your own Evolutionists. Show me the data. Go against that stereotype that bio majors can't do math, and show me some stats. That's the only legitimate way to show whether a theory based on historical evidence is true. The theory can always mutate to fit the historical data that is discovered, but at each step we need to stop and say, "Is this probable?" I've seen a lot of stories that start off, "The Kingdom of Evolutionary Biology is like this: Imagine you are doing some improbable event, but imagine the favorable conditions...." This is a parable, more like something a religious group would give as an explanation. I want science. I want data. I want journals doing the stats on nearly real situations.
Show me the data, and I will believe.
P.S. The stupid Dawkins passage I'm referring to is on pp. 161-162 of "The Blind Watchmaker." After I read this page, I took out my calculator, determined that Dawkins was an idiot, and stopped believing in biologists claims about how evolution can be probable under the right circumstances. All your arguments show that, yes, evolution is MORE probable, but I need an ABSOLUTE scale. Showing something is a billion times more probable than a first estimate in 1 in 10^100 is great, but something that is 1 in 10^91 is still NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.
Response
2. If God supports the existence of the physical world, then why is it ridiculous that he directs some seemingly random events? I grant that it adds nothing to a scientific explanation, but the author is trying to show that random events are not inconsistent with the existence of God, and I think this is correct. It is not a scientific point, but a theological one, and a properly theological point at that. It is in conflict with the religious views of some scientists and not in conflict with the religious views of other scientists, but that's not a scientific matter.
3. Dawkins' books are popularisations. If you want to deal with the actual calculations, you'll need to read technical literature after first mastering a good population genetics textbook. The literature is extensively mathematical, and only someone who is totally unaware of that literature could even make the statement "bio majors can't do math" come off their keyboard without grimacing. Here's a primer to get you going: Thompson, James N. 1997. Primer of genetic analysis: a problems approach. 2nd ed. Cambridge [England]; New York: Cambridge University Press.
Spetner's arguments are spurious at best. A general discussion of these things is found in Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations . A fuller review of Spetner's arguments, by a person who is open to anti-Darwinian arguments, can be found at Gert Korthof's site. His conclusion: "If Spetner demonstrated anything, it is that population genetics is the most falsifiable part of evolution theory."
4. Behe has been dealt with many times both on this site and again and elsewhere.